Steep U.S. tariffs are starting to squeeze the Chinese economy.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

US tariffs are beginning to take a toll – but some analysts believe Beijing could still achieve 5 per cent GDP target.