Fed, Trump and inflation
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In a wide-ranging interview with Yahoo Finance Federal Reserve Reporter Jennifer Schonberger, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee discusses how tariffs impact his outlook for inflation and what he wants to see from the US economy in order to cut rates.
Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler said the Fed should hold interest rates steady for a while to come, because new trade barriers are likely to spark more inflation in the months ahead. Speaking at a housing conference in Washington,
Rising prices across an array of goods from coffee to audio equipment to home furnishings pulled inflation higher.
Trump has criticized Powell for months because the chair has kept the short-term interest rate the Fed controls at 4.3% this year, after cutting it three times last year. Powell says the Fed wants to see how the economy responds to Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports, which Powell says could push up inflation.
What is clear is that the current 4.33% median Fed funds target rate remains well above the inflation trend. Even after the acceleration in consumer prices in June, the policy rate is roughly 1.4 percentage points above headline CPI’s one-year change – close to the biggest gap post-pandemic.
J.P. Morgan warned in a note that Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve and threats to fire Chair Powell could undercut central bank independence and increase inflation risks.