Meanwhile, those who are worried we’re entering stagflation or a looming recession point toward recent signs of job market weakness and the risk that tariffs reignite inflation, slowing spending, and sluggish consumer confidence.

Goldman Sachs cut its recession forecast for the U.S. to 35% from 45%, the first major brokerage to do so, after a temporary tariff truce with China boosted hopes of some easing in the global trade war.

Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for Chinese and U.S. economic growth, and cut its odds for a U.S. recession, after the countries agreed Monday to slash tariffs on each other's imports.