Apple’s efforts to diversify its production away from China have been undermined by President Trump’s renewed threat to impose a 25% tariff on iPhones not made in the US.

Even with a 25% tariff, the numbers still favor India. A $1,000 iPhone made in India would incur a $250 tariff. Add that to the $30 assembly cost, and the total is $280—still far cheaper than U.S. assembly alone.

A series of shifting and often contradictory tariff policies have left a mess in their wake. Will Trump actually stick to this threat?