There is considerable speculation that Iran might retaliate for the US's strikes on its nuclear facilities by closing the world's busiest oil shipping channel, the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of global oil and gas flows through this narrow shipping lane in the Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz matters enormously because it channels roughly one‑fifth to one‑quarter of the world's oil supply, serving as a critical artery for global energy markets—with international navigation already affected by Iran's proxy Houthi group disruptions in the Red Sea.